The Rt Hon Malcolm Bruce MP

Mid-August Column

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Turmoil 1 - foot and mouth

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Events can come up unexpectedly on any Government and the combination of an outbreak of foot and mouth and turmoil on the world's stock markets has certainly made August more stressful than is normal in the holiday season.

The circumstances of the foot and mouth outbreak are clearly a matter for concern. Any outbreak reflects ill on the nation's farming profile abroad. This was certainly the case in the major outbreak that delayed the last election but one. Yet it appears the industry in this case is blameless but suffers the consequences of lost markets, depressed prices and movement restrictions.

The fact that the outbreak occurred in the south of England does not spare Scotland's farmers from the disruption and damage. Movement restrictions do not respect national borders and the EU has imposed a three month ban on all livestock movements from the UK.

The restoration of cross border trade will be welcome for many Scots farmers but farming is difficult these days with changes in support systems and downward pressure on prices.

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Turmoil 2 - financial markets

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The turmoil in the stock markets would certainly not be welcome to the new Prime Minister with ten years' experience as Chancellor behind him. The cause appears to be concern that some US financial institutions face difficulties with possible default in loans that had been extended to higher risk borrowers.

This is something that could cause concern in the UK where we have the largest personal debt in Europe which would certainly unsettle the market if an economic downturn led to job losses and depressed incomes for some of the poorer debtors.

Volatility in financial markets is not new, of course, and is the making of some speculator's fortunes. However it can contribute to downturn in investment, reduced growth or recession and threaten pensions. These things are largely outside Governments' control but that doesn't stop voters blaming them for any hardship they suffer.

Things have steadied up but there is clearly an underlying nervousness.

The interesting question is whether either of these events increases or decreases the possibility of an autumn election.

It is, to my mind, crazy that a Government elected with a substantial working majority should be able to plunge the country into the endless uncertainty of a possible election for which only three weeks notice is required.

Gordon Brown either needs an election immediately to legitimise his role as PM or serve the full term to which the Government is entitled. Allowing a long period of speculative uncertainty is not good for anyone and the Government that allowed it to continue unchecked could well be punished by the electorate when it gets the chance.

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Back to school presents challenges

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The summer holidays are short for Scottish MPs with the House sitting until nearly the end of July and the schools going back in the middle of August meaning the few days between the family holiday and the start of school are fraught with preparations.

In our case our eldest moves into Primary 4. It is a big year for our middle child who starts his first term at "big school" in primary one while his baby sister moves into playgroup.

For some schools the new term is a matter of coping with rising rolls and pressure on space. For others there is concern whether falling rolls may lead to a reduction in teachers.

Across the North East there is an urgent need for more capital funds to be released for school upgrades. A commitment to reduced class sizes is all very well but it must be accompanied by adequate funding for teachers, equipment and accommodation.

Having said all that, my travels around the North East confirm to me that a good school is not just a matter of the fabric of the building and there are many schools that achieve a good learning atmosphere in spite of constraints.

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'Silver' summer tour

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Next week I embark on my 25th summer tour of the constituency. It starts in Balmedie on Wednesday 22 August and finishes in Glass on Wednesday 27 August - 61 stops later.

I started this annual tour when I was first elected in 1983. At that time it was an unusual event which only a very few MPs carried out. Now many do. Of course the route has changed significantly not least because the constituency boundaries have change three times.

Of course, I visit many places around Gordon all through the year but this tour means that I get to some of the smaller places I might not otherwise visit.

This year, Alison McInnes, newly elected regional Liberal Democrat MSP for North East Scotland, is accompanying me.

Where possible we stop off at schools, shops or other meeting points. We can offer people private consultations in our mobile office but are also happy to chat to people about any matters of interest they wish to raise with us, ask our advice about or inform us about. Appointments aren't necessary.

On Wednesday we are in the rural area from Balmedie, through Oldmeldrum to around Inverurie. Thursday is in and around the Ellon area (and Dyce and Bridge of Don in the evening). Monday is southern Strathbogie and the rural area north of Alford. Wednesday 29 is the rural areas around Huntly and Insch.

Details of the stops and timings are advertised in the local press or you can phone 013398 89120 for more information or if you wish to make a specific appointment.

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Independence and reform - a challenge to unionists and nationalists

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The SNP is launching its campaign to force a referendum on Scottish independence in spite of the opposition of the majority of MSPs and against a background of opinion polls showing the majority of people in Scotland opposed to outright independence.

On the face of it a referendum looks like the ultimate democracy but experience here and elsewhere demonstrates that more often than not they become tainted by other issues - not least the relative popularity of the party posing the question.

My opposition to an independence referendum arises not because I do not believe Scotland needs or wants to end the United Kingdom (though that is my view) but because I believe the process will inevitably be long drawn out and divisive.

Those who suggest it could end separatism once and for all ignore what drives most nationalists who will not take no for an answer. A narrow result will be the spur for another go. Money and effort will be expended by both sides which could be better deployed on bigger issues of interdependence such as security, climate change and facing the challenge of globalisation.

I took a leading role in the constitutional convention that led to the creation of the Scottish Parliament. I am proud of what we delivered but it fell short of what many of us want.

In particular I believe that we will not have a responsible and accountable Scottish Parliament without a significant transfer of tax revenues direct to the Parliament.

There is almost certainly a majority for further reform to strengthen the Parliament. My campaign is for a Strong Scotland in a Strong United Kingdom - good for Scotland and the UK.

If the SNP really cared about moving Scotland forward then I believe they would recognise the case for a new Constitutional Convention to secure the greatest support for further reform.

Instead they choose to play political games at the taxpayers expense. They took no part in shaping the present settlement and in their obsession with independence could end up denying Scotland further progress within a reformed United Kingdom, which could strengthen democracy and accountability in all parts of the UK. But then I'm a unionist - although a strongly reformist one.

Quebec's separatist campaign ended up deeply dividing Quebec and Canada over many years but led to the collapse of separatist forces in Quebec. Canada represents a clear warning to Scotland's separatists and a challenge to reform minded unionists.